Realities of no deal

An independent think tank has produced a ‘timely and sobering’ assessment of the difficulties of no deal, Michael Zander writes in this week’s NLJ.

Zander’s review of the Institute for Government’s report, ‘Preparing Brexit: no deal’, published on 29 July, highlights the Institute’s view that no deal is the most likely outcome given the Prime Minister’s rejection of the Irish ‘backstop’ and insistence on a 31 October deadline, and the EU’s repeated statements that it will not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.

Zander, Emeritus Professor of LSE, then outlines the Institute’s views on the realities of Brexit, for example, the failure to ‘roll over’ the 36 free trade agreements between the EU and non-EU countries―only 13 are complete or partially complete, while Japan, Canada and Turkey have indicated that they will not roll over the existing terms.

Free trade aside, some other agreements (notably aeroplanes and nuclear co-operation) have been rolled over, but a large number remain outstanding, and some countries have refused to continue the agreement on existing terms, for example, the US has not agreed to roll over agreements on data sharing.

Moreover, Parliament is unlikely to pass all the required Brexit Bills in time for a Halloween exit, for example, Bills on agriculture, fisheries and immigration as well as the Trade Bill. The Financial Services Bill is yet to have its Third Reading.

Zander says the absence of those would leave UK law ‘frozen’.

For more on these and other pertinent issues in the institute’s report, see 'Brexit: the endgame (Pt 2)'.

The report, ‘Preparing Brexit: No Deal’, was written by Joe Owen, Maddy Thimont Jack and Jill Rutter and is available here.