Brexit & devolution

Lawyers are keeping a close eye on the polls in the run-up to next week’s EU Referendum, with the latest YouGov survey showing Brexit in the lead with 46% to Remain’s 39%.

While Brexit would have a huge impact on business and government across the UK, the repercussions for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales would be unique. The Scots, of course, could press for a second referendum and ultimately leave the UK, although their ultimate relationship with the EU is impossible to predict.

For Northern Ireland, one of the main changes would be a “hardening” of the border with the Republic of Ireland. Writing in NLJ this week, Fionnuala Connolly, 4-5 Gray’s Inn Square, says: “In the event of Brexit, it is entirely foreseeable that [the higher courts in Northern Ireland] may be faced with novel legal disputes relating to entry at the land border and indeed residence in the UK.” Connolly also anticipates changes to the functions of the British-Irish Council, particularly in EU law-related areas such as trade or animal disease controls.

Wales received about £245m more from the EU than it paid in, in 2014, according to research by Cardiff University, so the Welsh have a lot to lose in the event of Brexit. The National Assembly is limited in the extent to which it can defend Welsh interests as it has legislative competence only where specifically conferred by Westminster statute. Given that the National Assembly will therefore be dependent on Westminster to make up the funding shortfall post-Brexit, therefore, “an exit strategy that does not properly accommodate Welsh interest may trigger calls for greater devolution,” writes Catherine Grubb, Civitas Law, in this week’s NLJ.

She points out that the impact of Brexit on Wales depends on what is negotiated between Westminster and Cardiff as much as between the UK, EU and the rest of the world.