Brexit ‘goes to the wire’

Prime Minister Theresa May sought support in Northern Ireland and Brussels this week for changes to the backstop following an inconclusive vote in Parliament.

She pledged not to allow a hard border in Northern Ireland, telling a Belfast audience that preserving peace was one of her most profound responsibilities and she would ‘not do anything that would put that at risk’. However, she said the government was looking at ‘alternative arrangements’. Conservative MPs have been considering technological solutions to the border issue, a proposal known as the Malthouse Compromise. MPs rejected May’s proposal for a customs union backstop. May is due to return to Brussels this week to seek fresh concessions from EU President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Last week, MPs voted on seven proposed amendments to a government motion to endorse the way forward, of which two passed: one to press the EU for changes to the Northern Ireland backstop, the other to give voice to the wish not to leave without an agreement. The amendments are not binding but reflect the will of Parliament.

David Greene, senior partner at Edwin Coe and NLJ consultant editor, said: ‘While this ups the pressure to avoid leaving without an agreement, “no deal” remains on the table at the moment unless by some chicanery Parliament can grab the ability to create a statute to bind the government.

‘That seems highly unlikely. So it is probably like this: if the government can sort a new backstop deal the prime minister might secure her deal with Parliament. If she can’t and the deal is defeated she will have the choice of leaving without a deal or asking the EU to delay the Article 50 exit.

‘Now the government makes its way to Brussels to see if it can alter the backstop. It’s going to the wire and for the time being the government retains the whip hand over Parliament.’