New device predicts personal injury outcomes

Hodge, Jones & Allen (HJA) has engineered a device that can calculate the likely outcomes of personal injury cases.  

The 200-staff London firm asked Andrew Chesher, professor of economics and economic measurement at University College London, to examine 600 cases concluded over a 12-month period using statistical techniques to determine the factors contributing to success or failure and level of damages and costs. 

Prof Chesher’s analysis took into account the demographics of the claimant, the nature and cause of injury, the type of defendant, the quality of the defendant’s solicitors, the level of solicitor handling the case, the number and type of witnesses, the corroborating evidence available, the reporting of cases to authorities and hospitals, and the time between injury and instruction. 

The results of the analysis have been converted into Excel-based programmes able to predict the likelihood of cases being won.
Initial assessments of cases are critical to the success of personal injury practices because the Jackson reforms have required both sides of a dispute to provide up-front costs estimates. 

Prof Chesher says: “There are complex interactions between many of the variables we analysed and, as with many markets where human judgement is involved, there is always an element of unpredictability. 

“However, particularly with the model predicting the likelihood of a case being won or lost, we were able to produce robust models that will improve over time as further data is collected.” 

Interestingly, the analysis showed that the age and working status of the claimant is important in predicting outcomes, as well as the existence of some gender bias. The length of time between injury and instruction also has an impact. Witnesses and reliable evidence were not instrumental in predicting a win or loss but were important in obtaining higher damages. 

Patrick Allen, senior oartner of HJA, says the models will not replace the experience and judgment of the firm’s enquiry handling team but would give them “an additional aid”.

Matt Cuell, HJA’s personal injury team manager, says the modelling “challenged some of our prejudices about the cases we should be taking on”.