Gauke was asked by Lord Chancellor Shabana Mahmood in October to chair an independent review of sentencing policy and consider ways to solve the prison population crisis. He is due to deliver his recommendations in the spring.
In an interim report, ‘History and trends in sentencing’, published this week, however, he examines trends ‘which have brought the system dangerously close to collapse’, with 85,000 people in prison—40,000 more than in 1993. If the current trajectory were to continue, the prison population would reach between 97,300 and 112,300 in 2032.
The increase is the result, Gauke explains, of governments focusing on punishment in the shape of incarceration and longer sentences accompanied by ‘an underinvestment in probation and other alternatives that can provide rehabilitation and reduce reoffending’.
He said the use of certain prison alternatives has decreased—for example, community sentences made up about 26% of disposals in 1996 but only 6% in June 2024. However, custodial sentences have increased in length as well as number—the average stretch for indictable offences was 16 months in 1993 but 22.5 months in June 2024. The number of prisoners serving more than ten years (not including indeterminate and life sentences) rose from 487 in 2010 to 1,639 in June 2024.
Bar Council chair Barbara Mills KC said: ‘This echoes our concerns about how we got here and the scale of the problem.
‘Successive governments’ aim to appear “tough on crime” has led to increases in the length of sentences. While increasing demands have been made of the system, they have not been accompanied by an overarching plan nor investment.
‘Reform must go hand in hand with greater transparency. A long prison sentence is the easy option, but it is not always the right long-term solution for offenders nor society. Ultimately, our sentencing regime needs to reduce crime and increase public confidence and safety.’
Law Society president Richard Atkinson said: ‘The report lays bare how prisons have reached crisis point.’
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